Today’s edition of The Australian carries a breakthrough article, in which leading economists and industry figures have finally acknowledged that the resources boom risks hollowing out our economy and leaving Australia in a perilous economic position when the boom is over.
Australian National University professor and former Reserve Bank director Warwick McKibbin is quoted as saying:
“If the nation assumes the resources boom will continue forever, then it should absorb the pain of effectively abandoning manufacturing and other trade-exposed sectors. However, there has never been a permanent boom in the terms of trade. This means the nation should invest the proceeds of the boom to ensure the non-mining parts of the economy have a future.”
Former WMC chief and Reserve Bank board member Hugh Morgan said:
“There is no escape from the higher dollar and the nation needs to ensure it makes the most of the boom in case commodities prices fell. Instead of people thrashing themselves with birches and woe, they should be fostering the resource development opportunity this boom offers the nation and pushing it as hard as possible. There is a real chance it won’t last forever, so one needs to build the country while the chance is available.”
We have consistently made the point over the last year that the Barnett Government’s hands-off approach to ensuring WA’s major resources projects perform their skilled engineering and fabrication work in Western Australia is seeing WA missing out on lasting benefits from the resources boom.
We have seen more evidence of that, this week.
On Sunday, Chevron launched an advertising campaign promoting the $4billion in contracts it had awarded to local business from its Wheatstone LNG project. Premier Colin Barnett last year encouraged resources companies to promote the contracts it awarded locally, and his Minister, Simon O’Brien issued a media release on Sunday, congratulating Chevron on its campaign. The Minister, “encouraged other proponents to follow Chevron’s lead in presenting the public with a more complete and factual picture of its investment locally.”
Mr O’Brien issued a further media release yesterday, claiming that resources companies had awarded $14billion in contracts to local companies since the middle of last year.
Instead of being a cheer-squad for the resources industry, the Barnett Government should be working hard to hold proponents to account and secure the best possible outcomes for the Western Australian community. Instead, we see an approach that seems more interested in managing perceptions, that delivering skilled local work.
The truth is, the $4billion in contracts Chevron says it is awarding locally is a small proportion of the $29billion capital value of the project. The $14billion of contracts Mr O’Brien says the resources sector has awarded locally is a tiny proportion of the $180billion capital value of projects Mr Barnett’s Department of State Development says are under development around WA.
In addition, Mr Barnett and Mr O’Brien refuse to provide a sector-by-sector breakdown of the type of contracts that are being awarded to WA businesses. We know that Chevron sourced more than 90 per cent of the 300,000 tonnes of fabricated steel it required for Gorgon for offshore and we know that, of the more than 150,000 tonnes of steel Chevron has awarded for Wheatstone, all of this has gone offshore. While we welcome all local expenditure by our resources companies, if we kid ourselves into thinking there is a long term economic benefit from earthworks, catering, cleaning, transport, telecommunications, car hire, advertising and corporate hospitality expenditure, then we are very much at risk of the “hollowing-out” effect described above. We need wealth-generating industries – industries where we earn money from making things, so that service industries can then be supported.
Another interesting point to note is that Mr O’Brien’s own method of identifying what constitutes a “local contract”, as defined in his May 2011 Local Content Report, is to classify a contract as local if more than 50 per cent of its value is added locally. That means, items can be made offshore, but as long as the cost of installing them locally constitutes more than 50 per cent of the their value, they are counted as 100 per cent local. Effectively, this means the $4billion and $14billion figures Mr O’Brien has trumpeted this week are an over-estimation of the work that is actually occurring in WA.
If Mr Barnett and Mr O’Brien need evidence that their rosy view of the resources sector is not as it seems, they need look no further than Kwinana. WA is in the middle of the largest resources construction boom we have ever experienced and the demand for the fabricated steel traditionally produced in and around the Kwinana strip is at an all-time high. The place should be booming. Instead, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has found that more than 2,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost in that area over the last 12 months and youth unemployment has almost doubled over the last three years, now sitting at 27 per cent.
These are the facts, and no amount of government-encouraged advertising from Chevron or other resources companies is going to change them. We need strong government action, like we are seeing in countries as diverse as the United States, Canada, Malaysia, China and the Ukraine, to secure skilled local work that delivers lasting economic benefits. If our governments continue their hand-off approach, our economy will be “hollowed out”, and it is unclear what we will all do for work once the resources construction boom is over.